Can Hip Fracture Prediction in Women be Estimated beyond Bone Mineral Density Measurement Alone?

The etiology of hip fractures is multifactorial and includes bone and fall-related factors. Low bone mineral density (BMD) and BMD-related and BMD-independent geometric components of bone strength, evaluated by hip strength analysis (HSA) and finite element analysis analyses on dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) images, and ultrasound parameters are related to the presence and incidence of hip fracture. In addition, clinical risk factors contribute to the risk of hip fractures, independent of BMD. They are included in the fracture risk assessment tool (FRAX) case finding algorithm to estimate in the individual patient the 10-year risk of hip fracture, with and without BMD. Fall risks are not included in FRAX, but are included in other case finding tools, such as the Garvan algorithm, to predict the 5- and 10-year hip fracture risk. Hormones, cytokines, growth factors, markers of bone resorption and genetic background have been related to hip fracture risk. Vitamin D deficiency is endemic worldwide and low serum levels of 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] predict hip fracture risk. In the context of hip fracture prevention calculation of absolute fracture risk using clinical risks, BMD, bone geometry and fall-related risks is feasible, but needs further refinement by integrating bone and fall-related risk factors into a single case finding algorithm for clinical use.