A multi-structured epidemic problem with direct and indirect transmission in heterogeneous environments

Area of Science:

• Epidemiology
• Mathematical Biology
• Ecology

Background:

• Puumala hantavirus poses a zoonotic threat, primarily circulating within bank vole populations.
• Understanding hantavirus transmission dynamics in rodent reservoirs is crucial for predicting and mitigating outbreaks.
• Previous models often simplify host population structure and transmission routes.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop and analyze a deterministic mathematical model for Puumala hantavirus transmission in bank voles.
• To incorporate age structure (juvenile/adult) and spatial heterogeneity into the epidemic model.
• To investigate indirect environmental transmission and density-dependent maturation rates.

Main Methods:

• Development of a reaction-diffusion system incorporating age and infection structure.
• Mathematical analysis to establish global existence, uniqueness, and boundedness of solutions.
• Inclusion of a sub-model to explore potential transmission to humans.

Main Results:

• The model provides a framework for understanding the complex dynamics of hantavirus spread in bank voles.
• Analysis confirms the well-posedness of the derived partial differential equations.
• The study lays groundwork for assessing human exposure risks.

Conclusions:

• Age structure and spatial distribution significantly influence hantavirus propagation in bank vole populations.
• Environmental transmission is a key factor in maintaining the virus within the reservoir.
• The model offers insights into host-pathogen dynamics and potential zoonotic spillover events.