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Updated: May 19, 2026

Predicting the Effectiveness of Population Replacement Strategy Using Mathematical Modeling
Published on: July 4, 2007
A mathematical model for the dynamics of malaria in mosquitoes feeding on a heterogeneous host population
Nakul Chitnis1, Thomas Smith, Richard Steketee
1Department of Public Health and Epidemiology, Swiss Tropical Institute, Basel, Switzerland. nakul.chitnis@unibas.ch
Abstract:
We describe and develop a difference equation model for the dynamics of malaria in a mosquito population feeding on, infecting and getting infected from a heterogeneous population of hosts. Using the force of infection from different classes of humans to mosquitoes as parameters, we evaluate a number of entomological parameters, indicating malaria transmission levels, which can be compared to field data. By assigning different types of vector control interventions to different classes of humans and by evaluating the corresponding levels of malaria transmission, we can compare the effectiveness of these interventions. We show a numerical example of the effects of increasing coverage of insecticide-treated bed nets in a human population where the predominant malaria vector is Anopheles gambiae.
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