The role of age structure in the persistence of a chronic pathogen in a fluctuating population

Small mammal populations exhibit large fluctuations, potentially leading to local extinction of specialist pathogens after bottlenecks. Pathogen persistence in recovering populations depends on the epidemiological characteristics of the hosts that survive the bottlenecks. Sin Nombre virus is a largely asymptomatic infection of deer mice, which creates a chronic lifelong infection. Earlier work on this virus has shown that males play a key role in pathogen persistence through a combination of longer lifespan and higher seroprevalence. Other evidence indicates that mouse age could play an equally important role, as older mice may have higher survivorship and higher contact rates. We use age structured models to examine the relationships among prevalence, age-dependent demographics, and age-dependent epidemiology.