[Determinants of juror decision making: an example for using time series analysis in legal psychology]

Social sciences need to supplement the traditional methods of cross-sectional or static analysis by dynamic analysis. The analytic utility of the Box & Jenkins-method is demonstrated by an application in the area of legal psychology. As observers of an entire trial by jury on attempted murder fourty-one law students continuously rated their impression of the defendants guilt any time they experienced a just noticeable change in guilt perception. With the transcript of the trial recorded on tape a detailed content analysis was performed as to extralegal vs. legal evidence, abstract vs. concrete presentation of information, factual vs. emotional emphasis, compassion for defendant and attribution of responsibility (external vs. internal). It was found that legal relevance, attribution of responsibility, and abstract vs. concrete information are the best predictors of the time series of guild perception.