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Digital Home-Monitoring of Patients after Kidney Transplantation: The MACCS Platform
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Published on: April 12, 2021

Lifetime risk of ESRD.

Tanvir Chowdhury Turin1, Marcello Tonelli, Braden J Manns

  • 1Department of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta, Canada.

Journal of the American Society of Nephrology : JASN
|August 21, 2012
PubMed
Summary

Middle-aged men have a 1 in 40 lifetime risk of developing end-stage renal disease (ESRD), while women have a 1 in 60 risk. Reduced kidney function significantly increases ESRD lifetime risk for both sexes.

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Area of Science:

  • Nephrology
  • Public Health
  • Epidemiology

Background:

  • Lifetime risk is a key metric for understanding disease burden.
  • End-stage renal disease (ESRD) poses a significant public health challenge.
  • Estimating lifetime risk is crucial for informed health policy and individual decision-making.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To estimate the lifetime risk of developing ESRD in a large adult cohort.
  • To analyze lifetime ESRD risk based on age, sex, and baseline kidney function.
  • To provide population-based data for public health policy development.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of a cohort of 2,895,521 adults from 1997-2008, excluding those with pre-existing ESRD.
  • Estimation of lifetime ESRD risk using serum creatinine measurements to assess kidney function (eGFR).
  • Accounting for the competing risk of death in lifetime risk calculations.

Main Results:

  • Among individuals without ESRD at age 40, lifetime risk was 2.66% for men and 1.76% for women.
  • Reduced kidney function (eGFR 44-59 ml/min/1.73 m²) increased lifetime ESRD risk to 7.51% for men and 3.21% for women.
  • Men consistently showed higher lifetime ESRD risk than women across all age and eGFR strata.

Conclusions:

  • Approximately 1 in 40 middle-aged men and 1 in 60 middle-aged women face a lifetime risk of developing ESRD.
  • Baseline kidney function is a critical determinant of lifetime ESRD risk.
  • These findings underscore the importance of monitoring kidney function and inform public health strategies for ESRD prevention.