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Related Experiment Video

Updated: May 19, 2026

A Tactile Automated Passive-Finger Stimulator (TAPS)
19:44

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Published on: June 3, 2009

Naïve point estimation.

Marcus Lindskog1, Anders Winman, Peter Juslin

  • 1Department of Psychology, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden. marcus.lindskog@psyk.uu.se

Journal of Experimental Psychology. Learning, Memory, and Cognition
|August 22, 2012
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

People making judgments from memory use a "naïve sampling model," retrieving small samples limited by short-term memory capacity. This explains why estimates sometimes reflect low-probability values, contrary to large-sample memory retrieval.

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Area of Science:

  • Cognitive Psychology
  • Decision Making
  • Statistical Inference

Background:

  • Short-term memory capacity significantly impacts online judgments relying on recalled information.
  • Two models explain statistical distribution knowledge use: large-sample abstraction vs. post hoc naïve sampling.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To compare two accounts of how statistical knowledge influences point estimates.
  • To investigate the role of short-term memory constraints in judgment.

Main Methods:

  • Four experiments were conducted to test predictions from the naïve sampling model.
  • Computational modeling was employed to compare predictive accuracy of different models.

Main Results:

  • Experimental results supported the naïve sampling model.
  • Participants' estimates sometimes included demonstrably low-probability values.
  • Recognition-based inference was also observed and modeled.

Conclusions:

  • Post hoc sampling constrained by short-term memory capacity better predicts judgment data than large-sample abstraction.
  • The naïve sampling model offers a robust explanation for memory-based statistical estimation.