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Cardiovascular risk prediction in the general population with use of suPAR, CRP, and Framingham Risk Score
Stig Lyngbæk1, Jacob L Marott, Thomas Sehestedt
1Department of Cardiology, Copenhagen University Hospital Gentofte, Denmark. stiglyngbaek@gmail.com
Insights
Soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor (suPAR) and C-reactive protein (CRP) significantly improve cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction. Combining these biomarkers with the Framingham Risk Score (FRS) enhances prognostic accuracy for both men and women.
Area of Science:
- Biomarkers and Cardiovascular Disease Risk Prediction
- Inflammatory Markers in Atherosclerosis
- Preventive Cardiology
Background:
- Soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor (suPAR) and C-reactive protein (CRP) are known independent predictors of cardiovascular disease (CVD).
- The combined prognostic value of suPAR and CRP, particularly when integrated with the Framingham Risk Score (FRS), remains underexplored.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the incremental prognostic value of suPAR and CRP, both individually and in combination with FRS, for predicting cardiovascular events.
Main Methods:
- Baseline suPAR and CRP levels were measured in 2315 healthy Danish adults (mean age 53.9 years) from 1993-1994.
- Participants were followed for a composite outcome of ischemic heart disease, stroke, and CVD mortality over a median of 12.7 years.
Main Results:
- Elevated suPAR levels were associated with increased CVD risk in both men and women, even after adjusting for FRS.
- Combining suPAR and CRP demonstrated substantially stronger risk prediction than either biomarker or FRS alone.
- The combined use of suPAR and CRP reclassified individuals with intermediate FRS risk into low or high-risk categories, significantly improving risk prediction models (C-statistics and integrated discrimination improvement).
Conclusions:
- suPAR offers valuable prognostic information for CVD risk that extends beyond the FRS.
- Integrating suPAR and CRP significantly enhances cardiovascular risk prediction, offering a more precise assessment for clinical decision-making.
Background:
The inflammatory biomarkers soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor (suPAR) and C-reactive protein (CRP) independently predict cardiovascular disease (CVD). The prognostic implications of suPAR and CRP combined with Framingham Risk Score (FRS) have not been determined.
Methods:
From 1993 to 1994, baseline levels of suPAR and CRP were obtained from 2315 generally healthy Danish individuals (mean [SD] age: 53.9 [10.6] years) who were followed for the composite outcome of ischemic heart disease, stroke and CVD mortality.
Results:
During a median follow-up of 12.7 years, 302 events were recorded. After adjusting for FRS, women with suPAR levels in the highest tertile had a 1.74-fold (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.08-2.81, p=0.027) and men a 2.09-fold (95% CI: 1.37-3.18, p<0.001) increase in risk compared to the lowest tertile. Including suPAR and CRP together resulted in stronger risk prediction with a 3.30-fold (95% CI: 1.36-7.99, p<0.01) increase for women and a 3.53-fold (1.78-7.02, p<0.001) increase for men when both biomarkers were in the highest compared to the lowest tertile. The combined extreme tertiles of suPAR and CRP reallocated individuals predicted to an intermediate 10-year risk of CVD of 10-20% based on FRS, to low (<10%) or high (>20%) risk categories, respectively. This was reflected in a significant improvement of C statistics for men (p=0.034) and borderline significant for women (p=0.054), while the integrated discrimination improvement was highly significant (P≤0.001) for both genders.
Conclusions:
suPAR provides prognostic information of CVD risk beyond FRS and improves risk prediction substantially when combined with CRP in this setting.
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