[Predictive models for complex diseases]

The Non Communicable Complex Disease (NCCD) are the leading causes of death in the world, causing more deaths each year than all other combined causes. The approximately 80% of deaths were caused by NCCD and occured in low and middle income countries. However, NCCD deaths could be avoided by prevention programs and early diagnosis. The challenge of the multifactorial phenotypes is to achieve a valid strategy for identifying risk individuals at the population. These strategies may be addressed to screening population or generating causal predictive models for early detection, interpreting the root causes that create the condition. The aim of this paper is to describe the characteristic of complex chronic diseases and some of the current methods of study of these in the health area .

Interdisciplinary work, a team of health professionals belonging to different areas allows for an adequate management of complex diseases. The application of graph models, such as DAG's, is a valuable tool for a better adjustment of the statistical model, which allows an appropriate correspondence with the actual health model of these illnesses. And the best methodological strategy for complex diseases is the early diagnosis and the monitoring of risk groups and therapy monitoring of patients diagnosed.