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There have been five major extinction events throughout geological history, resulting in the elimination of biodiversity, followed by a rebound of species that adapted to the new conditions. In the current geological epoch, the Holocene, there is a sixth extinction event in progress. This mass extinction has been attributed to human activities and is thus provisionally called the Anthropocene. In 2019 the human population reached 7.7 billion people and is projected to comprise 10 billion by...
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Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework
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Published on: July 24, 2016

Facing uncertainty in ecosystem services-based resource management.

Adrienne Grêt-Regamey1, Sibyl H Brunner, Jürg Altwegg

  • 1Planning of Landscape and Urban Systems, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology ETH Zurich, Wolfgang-Pauli-Strasse 15, Zurich, Switzerland. gret@nsl.ethz.ch

Journal of Environmental Management
|August 28, 2012
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Quantifying uncertainties in ecosystem services assessment is crucial for effective natural resource management. This study introduces a new method to map these uncertainties, revealing critical insights for decision-making in mountain ecosystems.

Keywords:
Bayesian networkEcosystem servicesForest managementMappingRiskUncertainty

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Area of Science:

  • Environmental science
  • Ecosystem management
  • Geographic Information Systems (GIS)

Background:

  • Ecosystem services are vital for natural resource management decisions.
  • Current ecosystem service assessment methods lack robust quantitative uncertainty analysis.
  • Ignoring uncertainties can lead to suboptimal management decisions and missed opportunities.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop and present a novel approach for mapping uncertainties in multi-ecosystem service assessments.
  • To quantify uncertainties in ecosystem service delivery in a spatially explicit manner.
  • To provide decision-makers with critical information for managing ecosystem services.

Main Methods:

  • Integration of Bayesian networks with Geographic Information System (GIS).
  • Spatially explicit risk approach to forecast ecosystem service bundles.
  • Quantification of uncertainties associated with forecasting outcomes.

Main Results:

  • The developed approach successfully maps uncertainties in ecosystem service assessments.
  • Mapping uncertainties provides crucial information for identifying critical areas of ecosystem service delivery.
  • Both the total value and spatial distribution of ecosystem services are significantly impacted by uncertainties.

Conclusions:

  • Considering uncertainties is essential for accurate ecosystem service valuation and spatial planning.
  • The findings are particularly relevant for the long-term management of sensitive mountain forest ecosystems.
  • This approach aids in navigating complex climate and socio-economic changes affecting ecosystem services.