Coastal zone management with stochastic multi-criteria analysis.

Area of Science:

• Environmental Science
• Coastal Geomorphology
• Risk Management

Background:

• Coastal erosion is a significant environmental issue, exacerbated by factors like dam construction altering sediment supply.
• Effective coastal management requires integrating physical processes and decision-maker uncertainties.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop and apply a stochastic methodology for coastal management that accounts for physical processes and decision-maker preferences.
• To assess the performance and acceptability of different erosion management strategies for Playa Granada, Spain.

Main Methods:

• Utilized simulation techniques to model shoreline evolution under stochastic forcing agents (atmosphere, ocean, land).
• Employed stochastic multi-criteria acceptability analysis (SMCAA) to evaluate predefined management strategies based on economic criteria for interest groups.
• Incorporated uncertainty in decision-maker preferences into the analysis.

Main Results:

• The methodology successfully ranked five different management strategies based on effectiveness and economic benefits for tourist activities, beach homeowners, and the administration.
• Quantified the probability of each alternative achieving certain ranks and identified preferences of a typical decision-maker.
• Provided a probabilistic assessment of strategy performance under uncertainty.

Conclusions:

• The proposed stochastic multi-criteria methodology offers a robust framework for informed coastal management decisions in the face of environmental uncertainty.
• The application to Playa Granada demonstrates the practical utility of the approach for addressing erosion issues caused by river basin development.