Predictors of a favourable socio-economic situation in middle age for Swedish conscripts with self-reported drug use

Risk and protective factors for adverse outcomes among drug users in the general population have been identified. This study considers whether some of these factors predict favourable socio-economic situations in middle age.

A 37-year follow-up of 49,411 Swedish male conscripts 1969/70, born 1949-1951. Based on self-reports at conscription, 36,191 living subjects in 2006 were divided into users of certain dominant drugs (n=3946) and non-users (n=32,245). Individual data from conscription and national registers were linked. Using logistic bivariate and multivariate regression, odds ratios (ORs) for the categories of dominant-drug users, compared with non-users, were computed for outcomes in 1990 and in 2006: education ≥12 years, being in work, and having a disposable income above the median. The ORs were calculated after considering familial, social and individual risk and protective factors, with separate analyses being performed for drug-use categories.

Small changes were observed in the ORs for the outcomes in 1990 and 2006. After adjustment for protective and risk factors, users of the various dominant drugs had increased ORs with an education ≥12 years but lower or non-significantly different from non-users for the other outcomes. The ORs decreased with severity of drug use. Among drug users, high intellectual ability, having a father from highest SES group, and communication with parents were among the factors that increased the probability of favourable socio-economic outcomes, especially when several protective factors were involved.

Protective factors increase the probability of favourable outcomes, but least among individuals with severe drug use.