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Child mortality estimation: accelerated progress in reducing global child mortality, 1990-2010.

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Global under-five mortality rates declined significantly between 1990 and 2010, but progress is insufficient to meet Millennium Development Goal 4 targets. Accelerated efforts are crucial to further reduce child deaths worldwide.

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Area of Science:

  • Global Health
  • Demography
  • Public Health Policy

Background:

  • Monitoring development indicators is crucial for tracking progress towards global health goals.
  • The Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) established targets for improving global health outcomes, including child mortality.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To describe the methodology used for tracking country-specific under-five mortality rates (U5MR).
  • To assess global and country-specific trends in U5MR in relation to MDG 4 targets.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized data from civil registration, sample registration, censuses, and household surveys for UN member states.
  • Employed time series regression models to analyze U5MR trends and derive infant and neonatal mortality rates.

Main Results:

  • Global U5MR decreased from 88 to 57 deaths per 1,000 live births between 1990 and 2010.
  • The annual number of under-five deaths reduced from 12.0 to 7.6 million during the same period.
  • The rate of reduction in U5MR accelerated but remained below the pace required for MDG 4.

Conclusions:

  • Significant progress has been made in reducing child mortality globally.
  • Current efforts are insufficient to achieve the MDG 4 target of a two-thirds reduction in U5MR by 2015.
  • Substantially increased efforts are necessary to accelerate the decline in child deaths and meet global targets.