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Ability differentials between nations are unlikely to disappear.

Michael A Woodley¹, Gerhard Meisenberg

¹School of Medicine, Ross University, Dominica, West Indies. m.a.woodleyphd@gmail.com

The American Psychologist

|September 12, 2012

Summary

Optimism about the Flynn effect closing international IQ gaps by 2100 is unwarranted. Recent data show diminishing Flynn effects in developed nations and highlight the need to differentiate childhood development from adult intelligence.

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Area of Science:

Psychology
Sociology
Human Intelligence Studies

Background:

The Flynn effect, a rise in average IQ scores over time, has been proposed to resolve international intelligence disparities.
Nisbett et al. argued that these gains would eliminate cross-national IQ inequalities by the end of the 21st century.

Purpose of the Study:

To critically evaluate the claim that the Flynn effect will resolve international IQ inequalities.
To examine the recent trends of the Flynn effect in developed countries.
To differentiate between accelerated childhood development and actual increases in adult intelligence.

Main Methods:

Analysis of existing data on IQ score trends.
Review of cohort studies from Europe and the United States.
Theoretical discussion on the interpretation of intelligence gains.

Main Results:

Flynn effect gains have become rare in cohorts born after approximately 1980 in Europe and the United States.
The evidence does not support the optimistic projection that the Flynn effect will eliminate all cross-national IQ inequalities by 2100.
Distinguishing between accelerated childhood development and sustained higher adult intelligence is crucial for accurate interpretation.

Conclusions:

The assumption that the Flynn effect will universally equalize intelligence is not supported by recent empirical data.
Further research is needed to understand the complex factors influencing both childhood development and adult intelligence across nations.
The hypothesis that some nations inherently lack the intelligence for industrialization remains a contentious issue, not resolved by current Flynn effect trends.