Atmospheric influences on water quality: a simulation of nutrient loading for the Pearl River Basin, USA

Knowledge of water quality conditions is essential in assessing the health of riverine ecosystems. The goal of this study is to determine the degree to which water quality variables are related to precipitation and air temperature conditions for a segment of the Pearl River Basin near Bogalusa, LA, USA. The AQUATOX ecological fate simulation model is used to estimate daily total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and dissolved oxygen concentrations over a 2-year period. Daily modeled output for each variable was calibrated against reliably measured data to assess the accuracy. Observed data were plotted against simulated data for controlled and perturbed models for validation, and stepwise multiple regression analysis was used to quantify the relationships between the water quality and meteorological variables. Results suggest that daily dissolved oxygen is significantly negatively correlated to concurrent daily mean air temperature with a total explained variance of 0.679 (p < 0.01), and monthly dissolved oxygen is significantly negatively correlated to monthly mean air temperature with a total explained variance of 0.567 (p < 0.01). Total mean monthly phosphorus concentration is significantly positively related to the previous month's precipitation with a total explained variance of 0.302 (p < 0.01). These relationships suggest that atmospheric conditions have a strong influence on water quality in the Pearl Basin. Therefore, environmental planners should expect that future climatic changes are likely to alter water quality.