Predictive performance of a busulfan pharmacokinetic model in children and young adults

Recently a pediatric pharmacokinetic (PK) model was developed for busulfan to explain the wide variability in PK of busulfan in children, as this variability is known to influence the outcome of hematopoietic stem cell transplantation in terms of toxicity and event free survival. This study assesses the predictive performance of this busulfan PK model in a new, more diverse pediatric population, including data from patients with different underlying diseases, ethnicities, body weights, ages, and body mass indices, from 5 international pediatric transplant centers.

The previously published (original) busulfan PK model was developed from data of 245 patients (0.1-26 years of age). To externally validate this model, data were collected from another 158 patients (0.1-35 years) who underwent hematopoietic stem cell transplantation in 5 international transplant centers. Observed versus predicted plots, normalized prediction distribution error analysis, refit of the model on the external (n = 158) and combined datasets (n = 403), and subpopulation analyses were evaluated.

The original busulfan PK model was found to be stable and parameter estimates precise. Concentrations predicted by this model were in good agreement with the observed concentrations from the 5 external datasets. Plasma concentrations in patients with different underlying diseases, ethnicities, body weights, ages, and body mass indices were adequately predicted.

Our pediatric busulfan PK model has been externally validated. This model predicts busulfan concentrations in pediatric and young adult patients ranging between 3 and 86 kg without bias and with good precision, regardless of transplant center, underlying disease, ethnicity, body weight age, or body mass index. This busulfan PK model forms the basis for individualized busulfan dosing.