Sobering up: a quantitative review of temporal declines in expectations

Area of Science:

• Psychology
• Cognitive Science
• Social Psychology

Background:

• Human outlook often shifts from optimism to pessimism as future events approach.
• Theoretical accounts explain this
• sobering up
• tendency.

Purpose of the Study:

• To meta-analytically test factors influencing temporal declines in expectations.
• To examine shifts in self-relevant outcome predictions over time.

Main Methods:

• Meta-analysis of studies on temporal shifts in expectations.
• Examination of factors like declining control, accountability, construal level, and affect management.

Main Results:

• A robust tendency exists to lower expectations as feedback time nears.
• Multiple psychological processes contribute to this expectation shift.
• Methodological choices, particularly prediction timing, significantly impact observed shifts.

Conclusions:

• The study identifies an exception to positive illusions about the future.
• A time-sensitive turn toward pessimism appears to have adaptive functions.
• Understanding these temporal shifts is crucial for psychological well-being.