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Predictability of the coherent-noise model and its applications
N V Sarlis1, S-R G Christopoulos
1Solid State Section and Solid Earth Physics Institute, Physics Department, University of Athens, Panepistimiopolis, Zografos 157 84, Athens, Greece. nsarlis@phys.uoa.gr
Physical Review. E, Statistical, Nonlinear, and Soft Matter Physics
|September 26, 2012
Summary
This study analyzes the coherent-noise model for predicting avalanches, finding the number of steps exhibits 1/f behavior. This allows for predicting future avalanche sizes using analytic expressions and step counts, applicable to earthquake aftershock data.
Area of Science:
- Complex Systems
- Statistical Physics
- Geophysics
Background:
- The coherent-noise model is used to understand phenomena with abrupt changes.
- Predicting the size and timing of future events, like avalanches or earthquakes, remains a significant challenge.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze the threshold distribution function of the coherent-noise model with an infinite number of agents.
- To derive an analytic expression for predicting the size of the next avalanche.
- To explore the applicability of the model to real earthquake aftershock data.
Main Methods:
- Investigated the piecewise constant threshold distribution function.
- Analyzed the 1/f behavior of the number of steps (n) as a function of avalanche order and natural time.
- Derived an analytic expression for the expectation value E(S) of the next avalanche size (S).
Main Results:
- The threshold distribution function is piecewise constant with a finite number of steps (n).
- The number of steps (n) exhibits a 1/f behavior concerning avalanche occurrence order and natural time.
- An analytic expression for the expected size of the next avalanche, E(S), was obtained.
Conclusions:
- The derived analytic expression for E(S) enables prediction of the next avalanche size.
- The number of steps (n) also serves as a predictive measure.
- The developed prediction scheme is applicable to real earthquake aftershock data analysis.
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