Jove
Visualize
Contact Us
JoVE
x logofacebook logolinkedin logoyoutube logo
ABOUT JoVE
OverviewLeadershipBlogJoVE Help Center
AUTHORS
Publishing ProcessEditorial BoardScope & PoliciesPeer ReviewFAQSubmit
LIBRARIANS
TestimonialsSubscriptionsAccessResourcesLibrary Advisory BoardFAQ
RESEARCH
JoVE JournalMethods CollectionsJoVE Encyclopedia of ExperimentsArchive
EDUCATION
JoVE CoreJoVE BusinessJoVE Science EducationJoVE Lab ManualFaculty Resource CenterFaculty Site
Terms & Conditions of Use
Privacy Policy
Policies

Related Concept Videos

You might also read

Related Articles

Articles linked to this work by shared authors, journal, and citation graph.

Sort by
Same author

A multivariate analysis to identify the relationship between sociodemographic differences and examination performance in UK postgraduate medical examinations.

Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine·2025
Same author

A multivariate analysis examining the relationship between sociodemographic differences and UK graduates' performance on postgraduate medical exams.

Medical teacher·2025
Same author

Trends in general acute care hospital nurse staffing from 2017 to 2022.

Nursing outlook·2025
Same author

Physician Training In Rural And Health Center Settings More Than Doubled, 2008-24.

Health affairs (Project Hope)·2025
Same author

Differential attainment in UK postgraduate medical examinations: examining the relationship between sociodemographic differences and examination performance.

BMC medicine·2025
Same author

Hours Worked and Clinical Workforce Equivalent Patterns in the Pediatric Subspecialty Workforce.

JAMA network open·2025
Same journal

Real-world Safety and Performance of the Symani Surgical System® in Microsurgical Reconstructive Procedures: Primary Results from the PRIMO Study.

Annals of surgery·2026
Same journal

Revisiting Simultaneous Liver and Kidney Transplantation from Donors After Circulatory Death in the Era of Machine Perfusion Technologies: A US Nationwide Analysis of 10,687 Cases.

Annals of surgery·2026
Same journal

The International Medical Graduate Paradox.

Annals of surgery·2026
Same journal

Defining the Incremental Value of Endoscopic Ultrasound in Assessing Pancreatic Cystic Neoplasms.

Annals of surgery·2026
Same journal

Trends in Metabolic and Bariatric Surgery and GLP-1 Receptor Agonist Use Among Adolescents with Severe Obesity.

Annals of surgery·2026
Same journal

The Ambulatory Surgery Center Paradox: Why 60% of Surgeries Occur Where 2% of AI Research Happens.

Annals of surgery·2026
See all related articles

Related Experiment Video

Updated: Apr 28, 2026

3D Printing Model of a Patient's Specific Lumbar Vertebra
07:30

3D Printing Model of a Patient's Specific Lumbar Vertebra

Published on: April 14, 2023

2.7K

Projecting surgeon supply using a dynamic model.

Erin P Fraher1, Andy Knapton, George F Sheldon

  • 1Department of Surgery, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC 27599, USA. erin_fraher@unc.edu

Annals of Surgery
|October 2, 2012
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

The US surgeon workforce is projected to decline 18% by 2028, with shortages expected to worsen, particularly in rural areas. Current graduate medical education reforms are insufficient to address this critical surgeon supply issue.

More Related Videos

Author Spotlight: Development of a Novel Finite Element Analysis Model for Improved Orthognathic Surgical Techniques
07:16

Author Spotlight: Development of a Novel Finite Element Analysis Model for Improved Orthognathic Surgical Techniques

Published on: October 20, 2023

2.0K
Author Spotlight: Segmentation and VR for Advanced Neurovascular Interventions
06:18

Author Spotlight: Segmentation and VR for Advanced Neurovascular Interventions

Published on: April 5, 2024

1.9K

Related Experiment Videos

Last Updated: Apr 28, 2026

3D Printing Model of a Patient's Specific Lumbar Vertebra
07:30

3D Printing Model of a Patient's Specific Lumbar Vertebra

Published on: April 14, 2023

2.7K
Author Spotlight: Development of a Novel Finite Element Analysis Model for Improved Orthognathic Surgical Techniques
07:16

Author Spotlight: Development of a Novel Finite Element Analysis Model for Improved Orthognathic Surgical Techniques

Published on: October 20, 2023

2.0K
Author Spotlight: Segmentation and VR for Advanced Neurovascular Interventions
06:18

Author Spotlight: Segmentation and VR for Advanced Neurovascular Interventions

Published on: April 5, 2024

1.9K

Area of Science:

  • Health Workforce Analysis
  • Surgical Workforce Projections
  • Healthcare Policy Impact

Background:

  • Increasing demand for surgical services due to expanded insurance coverage and an aging US population.
  • Urgent need for accurate surgical capacity forecasts to inform healthcare policy and planning.
  • Health care reform necessitates a reevaluation of the optimal number and specialty mix of surgeons.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop a projection model for forecasting surgeon supply in the United States.
  • To estimate the future head count and full-time equivalent (FTE) supply of surgeons.
  • To analyze surgeon supply by age, sex, and specialty from 2009 to 2028.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized a dynamic stock and flow model for simulation.
  • Incorporated changes in surgeon demographics and policy factors into the model.
  • Projected future changes in surgeon numbers and specialty distribution.

Main Results:

  • Overall surgeon supply is forecasted to decrease by 18% between 2009 and 2028.
  • Declines in surgeon supply are predicted across most specialties.
  • Colorectal, pediatric, neurological, and vascular surgery are exceptions to the overall decline.

Conclusions:

  • Anticipated decreases in surgeon hours and graduate medical education funding may lead to workforce shortages.
  • Existing surgeon maldistribution patterns are likely to be exacerbated.
  • Potential for delayed or lost access to essential surgical procedures, especially in rural regions.