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Use of an Influenza Antigen Microarray to Measure the Breadth of Serum Antibodies Across Virus Subtypes

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Spreading of multiple epidemics with cross immunization.

Florian Uekermann¹, Kim Sneppen

¹Niels Bohr Institute, Blegdamsvej 17, 2100 Copenhagen, Copenhagen University, Denmark. florian.uekermann@nbi.dk

Physical Review. E, Statistical, Nonlinear, and Soft Matter Physics

|October 4, 2012

Summary

Pathogen evolution is driven by host immune evasion. This model shows disease evolution trees are highly branched but rarely split, with pathogens maintaining cross-immunization.

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Area of Science:

Evolutionary biology
Immunology
Mathematical modeling

Background:

Pathogen-host interactions involve a continuous coevolutionary struggle.
Pathogens evolve to evade host immune systems, while hosts adapt to eliminate pathogens.

Purpose of the Study:

To propose a minimal model for pathogen-host evolution.
To investigate the role of cross-immunization and spatial heterogeneity in host immunity.
To analyze the resulting evolutionary tree of diseases.

Main Methods:

Development of a minimal mathematical model for pathogen-host evolution.
Inclusion of cross-immunization dynamics.
Simulation of spatially heterogeneous immune status within a host population.
Analysis of evolutionary tree branching patterns based on mutation rate.

Main Results:

The model generates highly branched evolutionary trees for diseases.
Long-lived, separate evolutionary lineages are rare.
Short-lived side branches seldom diverge enough to lose all cross-immunizations.
Mutation rate is a key parameter determining evolutionary outcomes.

Conclusions:

Coevolutionary dynamics between pathogens and hosts lead to complex, branched disease evolution.
Cross-immunization plays a crucial role in maintaining lineage cohesion.
Spatially heterogeneous host immunity influences pathogen evolution trajectories.