Related Experiment Video
Updated: May 18, 2026

Predicting the Effectiveness of Population Replacement Strategy Using Mathematical Modeling
Published on: July 4, 2007
Using ecological niche modelling to predict spatial and temporal distribution patterns in Chinese gibbons: lessons
H J Chatterjee1, J S Y Tse, S T Turvey
1Research Department of Genetics, Evolution and Environment, University College London, London, UK. h.chatterjee@ucl.ac.uk
Abstract:
Ecological niche modelling (ENM) is used to predict species' tolerance to changing environmental conditions. Understanding changes in the spatial distribution of species across time is essential in order to develop effective conservation strategies. Here we map the past and present distribution of gibbons across China, a country experiencing extensive anthropogenic habitat destruction and ongoing biodiversity loss. The distribution of gibbons across three time intervals is described based on fossil, historical and modern-day data, and ENM, implemented using DIVA-GIS, is used to predict how modern-day gibbon distributions might respond to future climate change. Predictions based on modern-day data alone fail to reveal patterns of environmental tolerance and geographical distribution shown by gibbons in the relatively recent historical period, emphasizing the need to incorporate past as well as present data in conservation analyses.
Related Concept Videos
Habitat Fragmentation
Ecological Niches
Conservation of Declining Populations
Conservation of Small Populations
Modeling with Differential Equations
Threats to Biodiversity

