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Propensity-adjusted association of methotrexate with overall survival in rheumatoid arthritis
Mary Chester M Wasko1, Abhijit Dasgupta, Helen Hubert
1West Penn Allegheny Health System, Allegheny Singer Research Institute, 4800 Friendship Avenue, North Tower, Suite 2600, Pittsburgh, PA 15224, USA. mcwasko@wpahs.org
Objective:
While medications used to treat rheumatoid arthritis (RA) may affect survival in RA, few studies take into account the propensity for medication use, which may reflect selection bias in treatment allocation in survival models. We undertook this study to examine the relationship between methotrexate (MTX) use and mortality in RA, after controlling for individual propensity scores for MTX use.
Methods:
We studied 5,626 RA patients prospectively for 25 years to determine the risk of death associated with MTX use, modeled in time-varying Cox regression models. We used the random forest method to generate individual propensity scores for MTX use at study entry and during followup in a time-varying manner; these scores were included in the multivariate model. We also investigated whether selective discontinuation of MTX immediately prior to death altered the risk of mortality, and we examined the association of duration of MTX use with survival.
Results:
During followup, 666 patients (12%) died. MTX use was associated with reduced risk of death (adjusted hazard ratio 0.30 [95% confidence interval 0.09-1.03]). Selective MTX cessation immediately before death did not account for the protective association of MTX use with mortality. Only MTX use for >1 year was associated with lower risks of mortality, but associations were not stronger with longer durations of use.
Conclusion:
MTX use was associated with a 70% reduction in mortality in RA.
Insights
Methotrexate (MTX) use in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients was linked to a significant 70% reduction in mortality. This finding highlights the survival benefits of MTX in managing RA, even after accounting for patient-specific factors.
Area of Science:
- Rheumatology
- Clinical Epidemiology
- Pharmacovigilance
Background:
- Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) management involves medications that may impact patient survival.
- Previous survival models for RA have often overlooked the propensity for medication use, potentially introducing selection bias.
- Understanding the independent effect of specific RA treatments on mortality is crucial for optimizing patient care.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the association between methotrexate (MTX) use and mortality risk in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA).
- To control for individual propensity scores for MTX use to mitigate potential selection bias in survival analyses.
- To examine the impact of MTX duration and discontinuation patterns on RA patient survival.
Main Methods:
- A prospective cohort study of 5,626 RA patients over 25 years.
- Time-varying Cox regression models were employed to assess the risk of death associated with MTX use.
- Individual propensity scores for MTX use were generated using the random forest method and incorporated into multivariate models.
Main Results:
- A total of 666 deaths (12%) occurred during the 25-year follow-up period.
- Methotrexate (MTX) use was significantly associated with a reduced risk of death (adjusted hazard ratio: 0.30).
- The protective association of MTX with mortality was observed for use exceeding one year and was not explained by selective discontinuation before death.
Conclusions:
- Methotrexate (MTX) use is associated with a substantial 70% reduction in mortality among patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA).
- The findings underscore the survival benefits of MTX in RA treatment.
- Longer duration of MTX use (>1 year) is linked to lower mortality risks in RA patients.
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