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Updated: May 17, 2026

Using Generative Art to Convey Past and Future Climate Transitions
Published on: March 31, 2023
Climate negotiations under scientific uncertainty.
Scott Barrett1, Astrid Dannenberg
1Earth Institute and School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027, USA. sb3116@columbia.edu
Uncertainty about dangerous climate change can shift negotiations from a self-interested "prisoners' dilemma" to a coordinated effort. However, uncertainty about the exact threshold for danger causes cooperation to fail.
Area of Science:
- Environmental science
- Game theory
- International relations
Background:
- Climate negotiations often resemble a prisoners' dilemma, where individual self-interest hinders collective action.
- Countries face a collective benefit from reducing emissions but an individual incentive to continue emitting.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate how uncertainty surrounding
- dangerous
- climate change impacts international cooperation.
- To analyze the game-theoretic dynamics of climate negotiations under varying levels of uncertainty.
Main Methods:
- Experimental evidence collection.
- Analytical framework development.
- Game-theoretic modeling of climate negotiations.
Main Results:
- Fear of crossing a dangerous climate threshold can transform negotiations into a coordination game, ensuring collective action.
- Cooperation remains robust despite uncertainty regarding the impact of crossing a threshold.
- Uncertainty about the precise location of a dangerous threshold reverts the game to a prisoners' dilemma, leading to cooperation collapse.
Conclusions:
- The perception of a dangerous climate threshold is crucial for fostering international cooperation.
- Uncertainty management in climate negotiations is key to avoiding catastrophic outcomes.
- Explains the discrepancy between stated collective climate goals and observed national actions.

