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Global Climate Change01:50

Global Climate Change

Throughout its ~4.5 billion year history, the Earth has experienced periods of warming and cooling. However, the current drastic increase in global temperatures is well outside of the Earth’s cyclic norms, and evidence for human-caused global climate change is compelling. Paleoclimatology, the study of ancient climate conditions, provides ample evidence for human-caused global climate change by comparing recent conditions with those in the past.
Microbes and Climate Change01:27

Microbes and Climate Change

Microorganisms are pivotal agents in Earth's biogeochemical cycles, significantly influencing climate dynamics through their metabolic activities. These microbes modulate the levels of key greenhouse gases by both contributing to and helping mitigate climate change.Microbial Contributions to Greenhouse Gas EmissionsRising global temperatures accelerate microbial metabolism, which, in turn, speeds up the decomposition of organic matter. This process releases carbon dioxide (CO₂) through...
Uncertainty: Overview00:59

Uncertainty: Overview

In analytical chemistry, we often perform repetitive measurements to detect and minimize inaccuracies caused by both determinate and indeterminate errors. Despite the cares we take, the presence of random errors means that repeated measurements almost never have exactly the same magnitude. The collective difference between these measurements - observed values - and the estimated or expected value is called uncertainty. Uncertainty is conventionally written after the estimated or expected value.
What is Climate?01:16

What is Climate?

Climate refers to the prevailing weather conditions in a specific area over an extended period. As the saying goes, “Climate is what you expect. Weather is what you get.” Climate is influenced by geographic factors, such as latitude, terrain, and proximity to bodies of water.
Uncertainty: Confidence Intervals00:54

Uncertainty: Confidence Intervals

The confidence interval is the range of values around the mean that contains the true mean. It is expressed as a probability percentage. The interpretation of a 95% confidence interval, for instance, is that the statistician is 95% confident that the true mean falls within the interval. The upper and lower limits of this range are known as confidence limits. The confidence limits for the true mean are estimated from the sample's mean, the standard deviation, and the statistical factor 't,' or...
Adaptations that Reduce Water Loss01:57

Adaptations that Reduce Water Loss

Though evaporation from plant leaves drives transpiration, it also results in loss of water. Because water is critical for photosynthetic reactions and other cellular processes, evolutionary pressures on plants in different environments have driven the acquisition of adaptations that reduce water loss.

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Updated: May 17, 2026

Using Generative Art to Convey Past and Future Climate Transitions
06:10

Using Generative Art to Convey Past and Future Climate Transitions

Published on: March 31, 2023

Climate negotiations under scientific uncertainty.

Scott Barrett1, Astrid Dannenberg

  • 1Earth Institute and School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027, USA. sb3116@columbia.edu

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
|October 10, 2012
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Uncertainty about dangerous climate change can shift negotiations from a self-interested "prisoners' dilemma" to a coordinated effort. However, uncertainty about the exact threshold for danger causes cooperation to fail.

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Area of Science:

  • Environmental science
  • Game theory
  • International relations

Background:

  • Climate negotiations often resemble a prisoners' dilemma, where individual self-interest hinders collective action.
  • Countries face a collective benefit from reducing emissions but an individual incentive to continue emitting.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate how uncertainty surrounding
  • dangerous
  • climate change impacts international cooperation.
  • To analyze the game-theoretic dynamics of climate negotiations under varying levels of uncertainty.

Main Methods:

  • Experimental evidence collection.
  • Analytical framework development.
  • Game-theoretic modeling of climate negotiations.

Main Results:

  • Fear of crossing a dangerous climate threshold can transform negotiations into a coordination game, ensuring collective action.
  • Cooperation remains robust despite uncertainty regarding the impact of crossing a threshold.
  • Uncertainty about the precise location of a dangerous threshold reverts the game to a prisoners' dilemma, leading to cooperation collapse.

Conclusions:

  • The perception of a dangerous climate threshold is crucial for fostering international cooperation.
  • Uncertainty management in climate negotiations is key to avoiding catastrophic outcomes.
  • Explains the discrepancy between stated collective climate goals and observed national actions.