Hydrologic variability in dryland regions: impacts on ecosystem dynamics and food security

Research on ecosystem and societal response to global environmental change typically considers the effects of shifts in mean climate conditions. There is, however, some evidence of ongoing changes also in the variance of hydrologic and climate fluctuations. A relatively high interannual variability is a distinctive feature of the hydrologic regime of dryland regions, particularly at the desert margins. Hydrologic variability has an important impact on ecosystem dynamics, food security and societal reliance on ecosystem services in water-limited environments. Here, we investigate some of the current patterns of hydrologic variability in drylands around the world and review the major effects of hydrologic fluctuations on ecosystem resilience, maintenance of biodiversity and food security. We show that random hydrologic fluctuations may enhance the resilience of dryland ecosystems by obliterating bistable deterministic behaviours and threshold-like responses to external drivers. Moreover, by increasing biodiversity and the associated ecosystem redundancy, hydrologic variability can indirectly enhance post-disturbance recovery, i.e. ecosystem resilience.