Small population size limits reproduction in an invasive grass through both demography and genetics

Small populations of founding individuals or survivors of incomplete management programs often represent critical transitions in biological invasions. Theory predicts that population size affects reproduction and, consequently, a population's expansion, but there are few empirical tests, and fewer that account for the reduced genetic diversity that often accompanies small population size. We created experimental small populations of invasive ryegrass (Lolium multiflorum) with population size varying independently from genetic diversity. Treatment independence was achieved by cloning plants to increase population size without changing diversity. Plant fitness was measured as the proportion of florets producing a seed. We analyzed the effects of population size, genetic diversity, and their interaction using ANCOVAs, one of which accounted for variation in individual plant growth. As predicted, smaller populations produced significantly lower proportion seed set. Low genetic diversity also reduced seed set, but this was best interpreted as part of a significant interaction with population size. Specifically, the effect of population size on the proportion seed set was over five times larger for populations in the medium genetic diversity treatment than the highest diversity treatment, and 6.7 times larger for populations with the lowest level of diversity. Population size variation had biologically meaningful consequences, as the rate of seed set within the low diversity treatment increased by 80 % with increasing population size. The results indicate that both the demographics and genetics of populations can influence reproduction and invasive potential, and must be considered when assessing risk and designing management plans for invasive plants.