Increasing blood glucose variability is a precursor of sepsis and mortality in burned patients

High glycemic variability, rather than a mean glucose level, is an important factor associated with sepsis and hospital mortality in critically ill patients. In this retrospective study we analyze the blood glucose data of 172 nondiabetic patients 18-60 yrs old with second and third-degree burns of total body surface area greater than 30% and 5%, respectively, admitted to ICU in 2004-2008. The analysis identified significant association of increasing daily glucose excursion (DELTA) accompanied by evident episodes of hyperglycemia (>11 mmol/l) and hypoglycemia (<2.8 mmol/l), with sepsis and forthcoming death, even when the mean daily glucose was within a range of acceptable glycemia. No association was found in sepsis complication and hospital mortality with doses of intravenous insulin and glucose infusion. A strong increase in DELTA before sepsis and death is treated as fluctuation amplification near the onset of dynamical instability.