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Outcome expectancy liking: a self-generated, self-coded measure predicts adolescent substance use trajectories
Heather G Fulton1, Marvin D Krank, Sherry H Stewart
1Department of Psychology, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada.
Summary
A new measure of outcome expectancy liking (OEL) for alcohol and marijuana use effectively predicts adolescent substance use trajectories. Higher OEL scores in early adolescence indicate a greater likelihood of earlier initiation and faster escalation of substance use.
Area of Science:
- Adolescent psychology
- Substance abuse research
- Predictive modeling
Background:
- Assessing adolescent substance use risk is crucial for early intervention.
- Existing measures of substance use expectancies vary in complexity and ease of use.
- Predictive validity of subjective values associated with substance use outcomes requires further investigation.
Purpose of the Study:
- To evaluate the predictive validity of a novel, brief self-report measure of outcome expectancy liking (OEL) for alcohol and marijuana.
- To determine if OEL scores can predict the initiation (intercept) and escalation rate (slope) of adolescent substance use over time.
Main Methods:
- Longitudinal study of Canadian students in Grades 7-11 over 3 years.
- Participants completed annual questionnaires including a substance-specific OEL measure and self-reported alcohol/marijuana use.
- Multilevel modeling was used to analyze the relationship between OEL scores and substance use trajectories.
Main Results:
- The OEL sum significantly predicted both the intercept and slope of adolescent substance use for alcohol and marijuana.
- Higher initial OEL scores were associated with earlier substance initiation and a faster rate of use escalation.
- These findings held even after controlling for demographic variables.
Conclusions:
- The outcome expectancy liking (OEL) task is a simple and unobtrusive method for identifying at-risk adolescents.
- OEL demonstrates predictive validity for adolescent alcohol and marijuana use initiation and escalation.
- This measure complements existing tools for assessing substance use risk in young people.
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