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Avoiding unintentional eviction from integral projection models.

Jennifer L Williams1, Tom E X Miller, Stephen P Ellner

  • 1National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis, 735 State Street, Suite 300, Santa Barbara, California 93101, USA. jennifer.williams@env.ethz.ch

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Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Integral projection models (IPMs) can inaccurately estimate population growth by "evicting" individuals outside size limits. Addressing this eviction issue is crucial for accurate population dynamics modeling.

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Area of Science:

  • Ecology
  • Population Biology
  • Mathematical Modeling

Background:

  • Integral projection models (IPMs) are widely used for size-structured population dynamics.
  • IPMs utilize approximating matrices within bounded size ranges.
  • Potential construction flaws in IPMs can lead to significant inaccuracies.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To identify and quantify the problem of individual "eviction" in IPMs.
  • To assess the impact of eviction on population growth rate (lambda) estimations.
  • To provide methods for detecting and resolving eviction issues in IPMs.

Main Methods:

  • Developing metrics to measure the magnitude of eviction.
  • Calculating the sensitivity of population growth rate (lambda) to eviction.
  • Analyzing IPMs for three plant species to demonstrate eviction.
  • Comparing eviction-free models with those experiencing eviction.

Main Results:

  • Eviction was detected in all analyzed IPMs for plant species.
  • Eviction consistently led to an underestimation of population growth rate (lambda).
  • Eviction is linked to mis-specified size transition functions within the models.

Conclusions:

  • Eviction is a common problem in IPMs that compromises population growth rate accuracy.
  • Modelers must test for and resolve eviction issues for reliable population dynamics.
  • Choosing appropriate solutions requires understanding the underlying causes of eviction.