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Updated: May 17, 2026

A Machine Learning Approach to Design an Efficient Selective Screening of Mild Cognitive Impairment
Published on: January 11, 2020
Predictive validity and diagnostic stability of mild cognitive impairment subtypes
Ji Won Han1, Tae Hui Kim, Seok Bum Lee
1Department of Neuropsychiatry, Seoul National University Bundang Hospital, Gyeonggido, Korea.
Background:
Mild cognitive impairment (MCI) is subclassified into four subtypes by the presence of impairment in the memory domain (amnestic vs. nonamnestic) and the number of impaired cognitive domains (single vs multiple). However, predictive validity for outcomes of these criteria and the diagnostic stability of the subtypes are questionable.
Methods:
We investigated the outcomes of 140 patients with MCI who participated in the baseline study of the Korean Longitudinal Study on Health and Aging and completed the 18-month follow-up evaluation (mean duration of follow-up = 1.57 ± 0.24 years). We evaluated the predictive validity of the criteria using multinomial logistic regression analyses, and the diagnostic stability of MCI subtypes using annual conversion rates between subtypes.
Results:
Compared with the single-domain type (MCIs), the multiple-domain type (MCIm) had a lower chance of reversion to normal cognition (MCIm = 10.94%, MCIs = 43.42%) and higher risk of conversion to dementia (MCIm = 23.44%, MCIs = 5.26%). The difference in the reversion rate between the multiple- and single-domain type was statistically significant (odds ratio = 0.233, 95% confidence interval = 0.070-0.771, P = .017). However, neither the chance of reversion nor the risk of conversion was different between amnestic and nonamnestic subtypes. Among the 81 participants who neither converted to dementia nor reverted to normal cognition, 39 converted to different subtype (annual conversion rate = 17.74%).
Conclusions:
The number of impaired cognitive domains, but not the presence of memory impairment, predicted poor outcomes in people with MCI. However, MCI subtype was diagnostically unstable.
Insights
Mild cognitive impairment (MCI) subtypes based on multiple impaired domains predict worse outcomes than single-domain MCI. However, MCI subtypes are diagnostically unstable, with frequent shifts between categories over time.
Area of Science:
- Neurology
- Gerontology
- Cognitive Science
Background:
- Mild cognitive impairment (MCI) is classified into subtypes based on memory impairment and the number of affected cognitive domains.
- The predictive validity and diagnostic stability of these MCI subtypes are not well-established.
Purpose of the Study:
- To evaluate the predictive validity of MCI subtypes for clinical outcomes.
- To assess the diagnostic stability of MCI subtypes over an 18-month follow-up period.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of 140 MCI patients from the Korean Longitudinal Study on Health and Aging with 18-month follow-up.
- Multinomial logistic regression used to assess predictive validity of MCI subtypes.
- Annual conversion rates calculated to determine diagnostic stability between subtypes.
Main Results:
- Multiple-domain MCI (MCIm) showed significantly lower reversion to normal cognition (10.94%) and higher conversion to dementia (23.44%) compared to single-domain MCI (MCIs) (43.42% reversion, 5.26% dementia conversion).
- No significant differences in reversion or conversion rates were found between amnestic and nonamnestic MCI subtypes.
- Among participants without conversion or reversion, 17.74% annually converted to a different MCI subtype.
Conclusions:
- The number of impaired cognitive domains, not memory impairment, is a key predictor of poor outcomes in MCI.
- MCI subtypes demonstrate significant diagnostic instability, with frequent transitions between categories.
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