Prediction of scar integrity and vaginal birth after caesarean delivery

A statistically significant association with uterine rupture during a trial of labour after caesarean delivery was found in at least two studies for the following variables: inter-delivery interval (higher risk with short interval), birth weight (higher risk if 4000 g or over), induction of labour (higher risk), oxytocin dose (higher risk with higher doses), and previous vaginal delivery (lower risk). However, no clinically useful risk estimation model that includes clinical variables has been published. A thin lower uterine segment at 35-40 weeks, as measured by ultrasound in women with a caesarean hysterotomy scar, increases the risk of uterine rupture or dehiscence. No cut-off for lower uterine segment thickness, however, can be suggested because of study heterogeneity, and because prospective validation is lacking. Large caesarean hysterotomy scar defects in non-pregnant women seen at ultrasound examination increase the risk of uterine rupture or dehiscence in subsequent pregnancy, but the strength of the association is unknown. To sum up, we currently lack a method that can provide a reliable estimate of the risk of uterine rupture or dehiscence during a trial of labour in women with caesarean hysterotomy scar(s).