ONCHOSIM: a model and computer simulation program for the transmission and control of onchocerciasis

ONCHOSIM is a computer program for modelling the transmission and control of the tropical parasitic disease onchocerciasis, or river blindness. It is developed in collaboration with the Onchocerciasis Control Programme in West Africa (OCP), and is used as a tool in the evaluation and planning of control operations. The model comprises a detailed description of the life history of the parasite Onchocerca volvulus and of its transmission from person to person by Simulium flies. The effects of different control strategies, based on larvicide application and chemotherapy (ivermectin), on the transmission and on the disease symptoms can be evaluated and predicted. In the program two simulation techniques are mixed. Stochastic microsimulation is used to calculate the life events of individual persons and inhabitant parasites, while the dynamics of the Simulium population and the development of the parasite in the flies are simulated deterministically. Output of ONCHOSIM conforms to the format in which data collected by the OCP are reported. This enables detailed checking of model specifications against empirical data. Output can also consist of summarizing key indices for the intensity of onchocerciasis infection, which is especially useful for comparing the effectivity of control strategies.