Precise determination of time to reach viral load set point after acute HIV-1 infection

The HIV viral load set point has long been used as a prognostic marker of disease progression and more recently as an end-point parameter in HIV vaccine clinical trials. The definition of set point, however, is variable. Moreover, the earliest time at which the set point is reached after the onset of infection has never been clearly defined.

In this study, we obtained sequential plasma viral load data from 60 acutely HIV-infected Chinese patients among a cohort of men who have sex with men, mathematically determined viral load set point levels, and estimated time to attain set point after infection. We also compared the results derived from our models and that obtained from an empirical method.

With novel uncomplicated mathematic model, we discovered that set points may vary from 21 to 119 days dependent on the patients' initial viral load trajectory. The viral load set points were 4.28 ± 0.86 and 4.25 ± 0.87 log10 copies per milliliter (P = 0.08), respectively, as determined by our model and an empirical method, suggesting an excellent agreement between the old and new methods.

We provide a novel method to estimate viral load set point at the very early stage of HIV infection. Application of this model can accurately and reliably determine the set point, thus providing a new tool for physicians to better monitor early intervention strategies in acutely infected patients and scientists to rationally design preventative vaccine studies.