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Phenotypic plasticity alone cannot explain climate-induced change in avian migration timing
Josh Buskirk1, Robert S Mulvihill, Robert C Leberman
1Institute of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies, University of Zürich CH-8057, Zürich, Switzerland.
Ecology and Evolution
|November 13, 2012
Summary
Bird arrival times are shifting due to climate change, with both individual plasticity and genetic evolution playing roles. While birds show adaptability to warmer years, evolution appears to be a significant driver of long-term phenological trends.
Area of Science:
- Ecology
- Evolutionary Biology
- Climate Change Science
Background:
- Climate change is altering phenology (timing of life-cycle events) in many species.
- A key debate exists on whether these shifts stem from evolved genetic changes or individual phenotypic plasticity.
Purpose of the Study:
- To estimate the phenotypic plasticity of spring arrival dates in 27 bird species in eastern North America.
- To determine the relative contributions of plasticity and microevolution to observed phenological shifts over 46 years.
Main Methods:
- Analyzed arrival dates of 2441 individual birds detected over multiple years.
- Correlated arrival timing with annual temperature variations, particularly in relation to migration distance.
- Quantified phenotypic plasticity and estimated evolutionary rates.
Main Results:
- Bird spring arrival was earlier in warmer years, with significant phenotypic plasticity (-0.93 days °C⁻¹).
- Phenotypic plasticity explained only 13-25% of the observed 46-year climate-induced phenological trend.
- Estimated microevolutionary rates were plausible, suggesting a genetic component to the response.
Conclusions:
- While phenotypic plasticity contributes to rapid adaptation, microevolution appears to be a substantial driver of long-term phenological changes in response to climate change.
- The findings highlight the complex interplay between plasticity and evolution in species' responses to environmental shifts.
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