Temporal trend of green space coverage in China and its relationship with urbanization over the last two decades

Irrespective of which side is taken in the densification-sprawl debate, insights into the relationship between urban green space coverage and urbanization have been recognized as essential for guiding sustainable urban development. However, knowledge of the relationships between socio-economic variables of urbanization and long-term green space change is still limited. In this paper, using simple regression, hierarchical partitioning and multi-regression, the temporal trend in green space coverage and its relationship with urbanization were investigated using data from 286 cities between 1989 and 2009, covering all provinces in mainland China with the exception of Tibet. We found that: [1] average green space coverage of cities investigated increased steadily from 17.0% in 1989 to 37.3% in 2009; [2] cities with higher recent green space coverage also had relatively higher green space coverage historically; [3] cities in the same region exhibited similar long-term trends in green space coverage; [4] eight of the nine variables characterizing urbanization showed a significant positive linear relationship with green space coverage, with 'per capita GDP' having the highest independent contribution (24.2%); [5] among the climatic and geographic factors investigated, only mean elevation showed a significant effect; and [6] using the seven largest contributing individual factors, a linear model to predict variance in green space coverage was constructed. Here, we demonstrated that green space coverage in built-up areas tended to reflect the effects of urbanization rather than those of climatic or geographic factors. Quantification of the urbanization effects and the characteristics of green space development in China may provide a valuable reference for research into the processes of urban sprawl and its relationship with green space change.