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What limits the evolutionary emergence of pathogens?
S Gandon1, M E Hochberg, R D Holt
1CEFE, CNRS, 1919 route de Mende, Montpellier 34293, France. sylvain.gandon@cefe.cnrs.fr
Summary
Pathogen adaptation drives epidemic potential in new hosts. Understanding ecological and genetic factors, like mutation and migration, is key to predicting and preventing infectious disease emergence.
Area of Science:
- Evolutionary biology
- Epidemiology
- Mathematical modeling
Background:
- Pathogen adaptation is crucial for causing epidemics in novel host populations.
- Understanding the factors influencing pathogen emergence is vital for public health.
Purpose of the Study:
- To review recent theoretical and empirical studies on the evolutionary emergence of pathogens.
- To discuss ecological and genetic factors affecting pathogen emergence.
- To explore how different modeling approaches impact predictions of emergence probability.
Main Methods:
- Overview of theoretical and empirical studies.
- Discussion of ecological factors (migration, life history, host heterogeneity).
- Analysis of genetic factors (mutation rate and effects).
- Comparison of different modeling approaches.
Main Results:
- Ecological and genetic factors significantly influence the likelihood of pathogen emergence.
- Modeling choices can alter predictions of evolutionary emergence probability.
- Theoretical insights can inform surveillance and intervention strategies.
Conclusions:
- Pathogen evolutionary emergence is a complex process influenced by multiple factors.
- Accurate modeling is essential for predicting and managing infectious disease outbreaks.
- Strategies should focus on reducing the emergence and re-emergence of infectious diseases.
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