Modeling to predict growth/no growth boundaries and kinetic behavior of Salmonella on cutting board surfaces

This study developed models to predict the growth probabilities and kinetic behavior of Salmonella enterica strains on cutting boards. Polyethylene coupons (3 by 5 cm) were rubbed with pork belly, and pork purge was then sprayed on the coupon surface, followed by inoculation of a five-strain Salmonella mixture onto the surface of the coupons. These coupons were stored at 13 to 35°C for 12 h, and total bacterial and Salmonella cell counts were enumerated on tryptic soy agar and xylose lysine deoxycholate (XLD) agar, respectively, every 2 h, which produced 56 combinations. The combinations that had growth of ≥0.5 log CFU/cm(2) of Salmonella bacteria recovered on XLD agar were given the value 1 (growth), and the combinations that had growth of <0.5 log CFU/cm(2) were assigned the value 0 (no growth). These growth response data from XLD agar were analyzed by logistic regression for producing growth/no growth interfaces of Salmonella bacteria. In addition, a linear model was fitted to the Salmonella cell counts to calculate the growth rate (log CFU per square centimeter per hour) and initial cell count (log CFU per square centimeter), following secondary modeling with the square root model. All of the models developed were validated with observed data, which were not used for model development. Growth of total bacteria and Salmonella cells was observed at 28, 30, 33, and 35°C, but there was no growth detected below 20°C within the time frame investigated. Moreover, various indices indicated that the performance of the developed models was acceptable. The results suggest that the models developed in this study may be useful in predicting the growth/no growth interface and kinetic behavior of Salmonella bacteria on polyethylene cutting boards.