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Constructing and Visualizing Models using Mime-based Machine-learning Framework
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Multicomponent indices to predict survival in COPD: the COCOMICS study.

Jose M Marin1, Inmaculada Alfageme, Pere Almagro

  • 1Hospital Universitario Miguel Servet, Zaragoza.

The European Respiratory Journal
|December 11, 2012
PubMed
Summary

The ADO index best predicts long-term mortality in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients up to 10 years. While BODE index modifications performed better after age adjustment, ADO and BODE remain the most valid for predicting COPD mortality.

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Published on: July 22, 2025

Area of Science:

  • Pulmonary Medicine
  • Clinical Epidemiology
  • Biostatistics

Background:

  • Current chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) guidelines recommend defining the condition using airflow obstruction and other factors.
  • However, limited research exists on the predictive accuracy of existing multicomponent indices for long-term COPD mortality.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To evaluate the ability of various multicomponent indices to predict mortality in COPD patients up to 10 years.
  • To identify the most accurate index for predicting COPD-related death over different time points.

Main Methods:

  • A pooled analysis of individual patient data from 11 COPD cohorts, including 3633 patients and 15,878 person-years.
  • Survival analysis and C statistics were employed to assess the predictive performance of indices like ADO, BODE, and e-BODE.
  • Analyses were conducted for various time points, including 6 months, 12 months, 5 years, and 10 years.

Main Results:

  • The ADO (age, dyspnoea, forced expiratory volume in 1s), BODE (body mass index, airflow obstruction, dyspnoea, exercise capacity), and e-BODE (BODE plus exacerbations) indices were optimal for predicting 6-month mortality.
  • The ADO index demonstrated the best predictive accuracy for 12-month, 5-year, and 10-year mortality, outperforming the BODE index (p<0.05).
  • After age adjustment, e-BODE, BODEx, and BODE showed superior predictive ability compared to ADO for mortality.

Conclusions:

  • No single index accurately predicts short-term COPD survival.
  • The ADO index is the most effective for predicting long-term mortality (up to 10 years) in COPD patients.
  • Both ADO and BODE indices are considered the most valid for predicting time to death in the general COPD population.