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Increased future ice discharge from Antarctica owing to higher snowfall
R Winkelmann1, A Levermann, M A Martin
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), 14473 Potsdam, Germany. ricarda.winkelmann@pik-potsdam.de
Nature
|December 14, 2012
Summary
Global warming will increase Antarctic ice discharge due to enhanced snowfall, significantly countering ice gain. This dynamic ice loss offsets potential sea level contributions from Antarctica.
Area of Science:
- Earth System Science
- Glaciology
- Climate Modeling
Background:
- Anthropogenic climate change drives global sea level rise.
- Enhanced Antarctic snowfall is projected to partially offset sea level rise.
- Uncertainties remain regarding Antarctic ice discharge and its impact on sea level.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the relationship between Antarctic snowfall and ice discharge.
- To quantify the impact of increased snowfall on dynamic ice discharge under global warming.
- To assess the net effect of these processes on Antarctica's contribution to global sea level rise.
Main Methods:
- Utilized an ice-sheet model forced by climate simulations up to the year 2500.
- Incorporated an ensemble of simulations to account for ice-physics uncertainties.
- Analyzed the influence of surface elevation changes on grounded versus floating ice.
Main Results:
- Increased snowfall under global warming amplifies Antarctic ice discharge by up to three times.
- Enhanced dynamic ice loss compensates for 30-65% of ice gain from snowfall.
- Dynamic ice loss can reach up to 1.25 meters by 2500 in high warming scenarios.
Conclusions:
- Antarctic ice discharge is directly linked to increased snowfall, a crucial factor in sea level projections.
- The dynamic ice loss driven by enhanced snowfall significantly counters potential ice mass gain.
- Antarctica's net contribution to sea level rise may be less negative than previously anticipated due to these coupled processes.
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