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Thresholds for boreal biome transitions.

Marten Scheffer1, Marina Hirota, Milena Holmgren

  • 1Department of Aquatic Ecology and Water Quality Management, Wageningen University, NL-6700 AA Wageningen, The Netherlands. marten.scheffer@wur.nl

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
|December 14, 2012
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Boreal forests are warming rapidly. Satellite data reveal distinct tree cover states, with intermediate covers being rare and potentially unstable, indicating nonlinear shifts due to climate change.

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Area of Science:

  • Ecology
  • Climate Science
  • Remote Sensing

Background:

  • The boreal region is warming twice as fast as the global average.
  • The response of boreal forests and tundras to rapid warming is poorly understood.
  • Understanding ecosystem shifts is critical for predicting climate change impacts.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the distribution and stability of tree cover in boreal ecosystems.
  • To identify alternative stable states and transient dynamics in boreal biomes.
  • To assess the implications of these findings for ecosystem response to climate change.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of satellite data to examine frequency distributions of boreal tree cover.
  • Identification of distinct tree cover states and their relative abundances.
  • Assessment of intermediate tree cover frequencies to infer stability and transitions.

Main Results:

  • Boreal tree cover exhibits distinct modes, with treeless tundra and steppe at extremes.
  • Intermediate temperature ranges show coexistence of treeless states with forest (∼75%) and open woodland (∼20%, ∼45%) states.
  • Intermediate tree cover percentages (∼10%, ∼30%, ∼60%) are rare, suggesting transient, unstable states.

Conclusions:

  • Boreal forest resilience decreases with warming, potentially leading to abrupt shifts to sparser vegetation.
  • Tundra may transition abruptly to more abundant tree cover due to the scarcity of intermediate states.
  • Climate change may induce significant nonlinear shifts in boreal biomes, impacting global climate regulation.