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Prognostic models in the clinical arena
Davide Bolignano1, Francesco Mattace-Raso, Claudia Torino
1CNR-IBIM, Clinical Epidemiology and Physiopathology of Renal Diseases and Hypertension, Reggio Calabria, Italy. davide.bolignano@gmail.com
Abstract:
Making a prognosis is to predict the course of a disease and estimate the probability (or risk) of the appearance of a given outcome in relationship to clinical or non-clinical characteristics. Prognostic assessment is usually modelled by multivariable mathematic equations (prognostic models). In this article we describe what a prognostic model is, how to build a good one, why and how it is important to evaluate its generalizability and accuracy by means of discrimination, calibration and reclassification.
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