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Recent patterns of crop yield growth and stagnation
Deepak K Ray1, Navin Ramankutty, Nathaniel D Mueller
1Institute on the Environment, University of Minnesota, St Paul, Minnesota 55108, USA. dray@umn.edu
Nature Communications
|December 20, 2012
Summary
Global crop yields for maize, rice, wheat, and soybeans are stagnating or collapsing in 24-39% of growing areas, challenging future agricultural demands despite population growth.
Area of Science:
- Agricultural Science
- Global Food Security
- Agronomy
Background:
- Global agriculture faces increasing pressure from population growth, rising meat/dairy consumption, and biofuel demand.
- Yield stagnation in major cereal crops (maize, rice, wheat) has been reported globally.
- Understanding current yield trends is crucial for future food security.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze global crop yield trends for key agricultural products from 1961 to 2008.
- To identify the extent of yield stagnation or collapse in major crop-producing regions.
- To assess the implications for meeting future global food demands.
Main Methods:
- Utilized a dataset of approximately 2.5 million global agricultural census observations.
- Examined yield trends for maize, rice, wheat, and soybeans over a 47-year period (1961-2008).
- Quantified the percentage of growing areas experiencing yield improvements, stagnation, or collapse.
Main Results:
- While yields increase in many regions, 24-39% of areas show no improvement, stagnation, or collapse in yields for the studied crops.
- Significant portions of global cultivation areas for maize, rice, wheat, and soybeans are not experiencing consistent yield gains.
- This widespread yield issue impacts the reliability of global food production.
Conclusions:
- Current agricultural practices and conditions are insufficient to ensure consistent yield increases globally.
- Addressing yield stagnation requires targeted investments in underperforming agricultural regions.
- Sustained yield increases in high-performing areas are also necessary to meet escalating global food demands.
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