Prediction of long-term (5 years) conversion to dementia using neuropsychological tests in a memory clinic setting

The use of neuropsychological tests to detect cognitive decline in the initial phases of Alzheimer's disease (AD) has faced significant limitations, namely the fact that most cohort studies of conversion to dementia had relatively short follow-up periods. The aim of the present study is to assess the predictive value for future conversion to dementia of a comprehensive neuropsychological battery applied to a cohort of non-demented patients followed-up for 5 years. Participants (n = 250) were selected from the Cognitive Complaints Cohort (CCC) having cognitive complaints, assessment with a comprehensive neuropsychological battery, and a follow-up period of 5 years (unless patients have converted to dementia earlier). During the follow-up period (2.6 ± 1.8 years for converters and 6.1 ± 2.1 years for non-converters), 162 patients (64.8%) progressed to dementia (mostly AD), and 88 (35.2%) did not. A Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) model constituted by Digit Span backward, Semantic Fluency, Logical Memory (immediate recall), and Forgetting Index significantly discriminated converters from non-converters (λ Wilks = 0.64; χ(2) (4) = 81.95; p < 0.001; RCanonical = 0.60). Logical Memory (immediate recall) was the strongest predictor with a standardized canonical discriminant function coefficient of 0.70. The LDA classificatory model showed good sensitivity, specificity and accuracy values (78.8%, 79.9% and 78.6%, respectively) of the neuropsychological tests to predict long-term conversion to dementia. The present results show that it is possible to predict, on the basis of the initial clinical and neuropsychological evaluation, whether non-demented patients with cognitive complaints will probably convert to dementia, or remain stable, at a reasonably long and clinically relevant term.