A composite risk assessment model to screen for gestational diabetes mellitus among Mediterranean women

To determine whether clinical risk assessment for gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) may preclude the need for universal screening with an oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) in situations of economic restraint.

Women with either GDM (n=119) or normal glucose tolerance (n=1249) were recruited from centers among 11 Mediterranean countries between August 1, 2010, and May 31, 2011. Outcome measures included anthropomorphic and biological data, obstetric outcomes, and infant outcomes.

Significant risk factors for GDM included maternal age of 30 years or more; elevated body mass index (BMI, calculated as weight in kilograms divided by the square of height in meters); elevated diastolic blood pressure; previous history of macrosomia; and family history of diabetes mellitus. These factors each had high specificity but low sensitivity for predicting GDM; however, when used in combination, sensitivity increased but specificity fell. Fasting blood glucose (FBG) level had high sensitivity (73.9%) and specificity (90.2%) for predicting GDM. Sensitivity was further increased by combining FBG measurement with maternal age and BMI (96.6%).

Use of a composite model to prescreen women for GDM risk may reduce the need for universal screening with the OGTT among centers facing health-cost pressures.