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A Protocol for Analyzing Hepatitis C Virus Replication
13:04

A Protocol for Analyzing Hepatitis C Virus Replication

Published on: June 26, 2014

Chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) disease burden and cost in the United States

Homie Razavi1, Antoine C Elkhoury, Elamin Elbasha

  • 1Center for Disease Analysis, Louisville, CO, USA. homie.razavi@c4da.com

Hepatology (Baltimore, Md.)
|January 3, 2013
PubMed

Insights

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection rates are decreasing, but advanced liver disease and healthcare costs are rising. Active management can significantly reduce HCV infection and its long-term financial burden.

Area of Science:

  • Hepatology
  • Infectious Diseases
  • Health Economics

Background:

  • Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is a major cause of liver cirrhosis, liver cancer, and liver transplants.
  • Understanding HCV disease progression and costs is crucial for management and treatment strategies, especially with new therapies.
  • The emergence of potent anti-HCV therapies necessitates updated models for forecasting disease burden and costs.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To model the progression of Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in the US.
  • To forecast future trends in HCV prevalence, advanced liver disease, and associated healthcare costs.
  • To estimate the lifetime cost of HCV infection.

Main Methods:

  • A system dynamic model with 36 cohorts was employed for enhanced flexibility and forecasting accuracy.
  • Estimated new infections incidence in 2010.
  • Modeled HCV viremic prevalence, advanced liver disease progression, and total associated costs over time.

Main Results:

  • New HCV infections incidence was estimated at 16,020 in 2010.
  • HCV prevalence peaked in 1994 and is projected to decline by two-thirds by 2030.
  • The prevalence of advanced liver disease and total healthcare costs are expected to increase, peaking in 2024.
  • The lifetime cost for an individual with HCV in 2011 was estimated at $64,490, higher for those with longer life expectancy.

Conclusions:

  • US HCV prevalence is declining due to reduced incidence.
  • Advanced liver disease and associated healthcare costs are projected to rise.
  • Active management strategies can substantially reduce HCV infection rates and lifetime costs.
Abstract

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