Improving prediction of surgery duration using operational and temporal factors

Area of Science:

• Healthcare Operations Research
• Medical Informatics
• Surgical Workflow Optimization

Background:

• Operating room (OR) performance metrics are significantly impacted by uncertainties in surgery durations.
• Accurate surgery duration estimates are crucial for developing robust OR schedules, minimizing variability and large errors.
• Previous research identified patient severity, personnel, and procedure type as key factors influencing estimation accuracy.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate the potential of operational and temporal factors in enhancing the accuracy of surgery duration estimations.
• To develop and validate an adjustment method incorporating these factors for improved OR scheduling.

Main Methods:

• Utilized a novel adjustment method combining operational and temporal factors.
• Validated the method using two years of detailed operational data from an electronic medical record.
• Assessed the impact of these factors on the accuracy and variability of surgery duration predictions.

Main Results:

• The proposed method demonstrates an improvement in surgery duration estimations.
• Despite enhancements, a significant inherent variability in surgery duration estimates persists.
• Operational and temporal factors contribute to refining predictions but do not eliminate all uncertainty.

Conclusions:

• Improving surgery duration estimates is feasible by incorporating operational and temporal data.
• The inherent high variability in these estimates necessitates careful consideration when optimizing OR schedules.
• Further research may be needed to fully mitigate the impact of duration uncertainties on OR efficiency.