A new and simple score for predicting cystobiliary fistula in patients with hepatic hydatid cysts

Hepatic hydatid cysts are common disorders in Turkey. Although most patients are treated by percutaneous drainage, some cases require operative intervention. Biliary fistula is a major complication of hydatid cyst operations. The purpose of this study is to identify preoperative predictors of cystobiliary fistula (CBF) and to develop a scoring system for this disorder.

Overall, 135 patients with hepatic hydatid cysts were included in this study. The following variables were analyzed as potential predictors of CBF: Age, gender, findings on physical examination, complete blood cell count, liver function tests, and ultrasonographic features of the cysts (type, diameter, number, and localization).

CBF was detected in 33 of 135 patients. Univariate analyses showed significant differences in cyst diameter, levels of alkaline phosphatase (ALP) and direct bilirubin, platelet count, and white blood cell (WBC) count between patients with and without CBF. On multivariate analyses, WBC count > 9,000/mm(3) (odds ratio [OR], 4.5), direct bilirubin level > 0.7 mg/dL (OR, 2.76), cyst diameter > 8.2 cm (OR, 5.48), and ALP level > 120 U/L (OR, 3.82) were significant and independent predictors of CBG. One point was given for the presence of each of these factors to develop a new score. The resulting area under the receiver operator characteristic curve was 0.803 (95% confidence interval, 0.726-0.866).

Preoperative detection and management of CBF are important issues in the treatment of hydatid cysts of the liver. Developing a scoring system based on routinely measured laboratory and radiologic factors will help the clinician to manage patients with hepatic hydatid cysts. External studies are needed to validate this new scoring system in routine clinical practice.