On the evolutionary stability of partial migration

The evolution of partial migration in birds is typically assumed to be the result of an optimization process. The fitness rewards for individuals choosing to migrate are balanced against the rewards of remaining in the breeding area all year around. This balancing is often thought to result in an evolutionarily stable strategy (ESS) such that an optimal fraction of the population becomes migratory through adaptive evolution. Here I show that this solution can indeed be reached through adaptive evolution, but that the equilibrium is a neutral or "weak" ESS. The equilibrium fraction of migrants is more reminiscent of the Fisherian sex ratio. I also show that this individual-based evolutionary solution may deviate significantly from the optimal solution for the population (maximum population size), quite in line with previous findings. Finally, I show that partial migration is very unlikely without density- or frequency-dependent selection.