A scenario-based modeling approach for emergency evacuation management and risk analysis under multiple uncertainties

Area of Science:

• Operations Research
• Risk Management
• Nuclear Engineering

Background:

• Nuclear emergencies necessitate effective evacuation plans to mitigate risks from hazardous materials.
• Existing evacuation management systems face uncertainties in their components and processes.
• Robust planning is crucial for timely and efficient population displacement during nuclear incidents.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop an advanced optimization method for nuclear emergency evacuation management under uncertainty.
• To address uncertainties in evacuation planning using interval and probabilistic parameters.
• To optimize evacuation routes for maximum population evacuation within a defined timeframe.

Main Methods:

• Development of an interval-parameter joint-probabilistic integer programming (IJIP) method.
• Integration of interval-parameter programming (IPP) and joint-probabilistic constrained (JPC) programming.
• Application of integer linear programming to handle interval values and joint probabilities.

Main Results:

• The IJIP method successfully schedules optimal routes for maximum population evacuation.
• The approach facilitates post-optimization analysis for enhanced robustness and risk control.
• Case study application demonstrates the method's utility in nuclear emergency management scenarios.

Conclusions:

• The developed IJIP method provides effective solutions for nuclear emergency evacuation planning.
• The approach enhances disaster response capabilities and systematic risk management.
• Findings offer insights into the interplay between evacuation planning, resource allocation, policy, and system risks.