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Estimating the national high school dropout rate.

R Kominski1

  • 1Population Division, U.S. Bureau of the Census, Washington, D.C. 20233.

Demography
|May 1, 1990
PubMed
Summary

The national high school dropout rate has remained consistent since 1968, despite improvements for certain student groups. This study introduces a clearer measurement for tracking dropout trends over time.

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Area of Science:

  • Education Policy
  • Sociology of Education
  • Educational Measurement

Background:

  • The high school dropout rate is a key indicator of national educational performance.
  • Existing measures of this rate are poorly defined, leading to considerable variation in empirical estimates.
  • There is a need for a more precise and consistent method to assess national high school dropout trends.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To review current methodologies for estimating the high school dropout rate.
  • To introduce and apply a new, more precise measure: the proportion of students dropping out within a one-year period.
  • To analyze national high school dropout trends using this refined measure.

Main Methods:

  • Literature review of existing high school dropout rate estimation methods.
  • Development of a new measurement based on the annual proportion of high school students who drop out.
  • Application of the new measure to historical data for trend analysis.

Main Results:

  • The national yearly high school dropout rate in 1985 was comparable to the rate in 1968.
  • Despite the stable overall national rate, significant improvements have been observed for specific racial groups since 1968.
  • Progress in reducing dropout rates was also noted for certain grade levels.

Conclusions:

  • The overall national high school dropout rate has shown little change between 1968 and 1985.
  • While the aggregate national rate is stagnant, targeted interventions appear to have positively impacted specific demographic subgroups and grade levels.
  • The newly proposed annual dropout proportion offers a more reliable metric for future educational policy evaluation and trend monitoring.

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