Quantifying Russian wheat aphid pest intensity across the Great Plains

Area of Science:

• Agricultural Science
• Entomology
• Pest Management

Background:

• Animal pests pose a significant threat to global wheat production, potentially reducing it by 10%.
• Effective pest management strategies rely on accurate population dynamic models, yet few studies compare their strategic applicability.
• The Russian wheat aphid (Diuraphis noxia) is a major pest of wheat in North America.

Purpose of the Study:

• To synthesize existing Diuraphis noxia population dynamic models.
• To evaluate and compare the quality and strategic applicability of these models.
• To develop a spatially explicit model-averaged prediction of Russian wheat aphid intensity.

Main Methods:

• Compiled 18 Diuraphis noxia population dynamic models from scientific literature.
• Quantified the influence of environmental factors (precipitation) and resource availability (alternate food sources) on aphid intensity.
• Transformed population dynamic models into spatially explicit models and integrated them into a model-averaged framework.

Main Results:

• The most robust models identified negative correlations between fall/spring precipitation and aphid intensity.
• Positive associations were found between alternate food source availability and aphid intensity.
• A spatially explicit, model-averaged prediction effectively delineated Russian wheat aphid intensity across the Great Plains.

Conclusions:

• Synthesized models provide a valuable tool for understanding Russian wheat aphid population dynamics.
• Key factors influencing aphid intensity include precipitation patterns and the availability of alternate food sources.
• The findings will enhance Diuraphis noxia management strategies, particularly for winter wheat in the Great Plains.